2010 – A Lesson in Bargain Hunting
July 14, 2010

The first six months of 2010 saw world stock market performance that could be described as underwhelming. This has been especially true during the last six weeks of the second economic quarter when volatility – fuelled by speculation of slow global economic growth and a rumoured double-dip recession – saw many indices hit 10-month lows.

Stock Market Performance – First Six Months of 2010

Index Name

Year-to-Date Performance

One-Year Performance

MSCI World        

–9.54 percent       

–1.95 percent

MSCI Canada    

–4.21 percent       

10.56 percent

MSCI USA           

–6.53 percent       

4.43 percent

MSCI EAFE        

–11.34 percent     

–1.80 percent


Reasons for the volatility include:

  • Concerns of ongoing sovereign debt crises in Europe and China's moves to slow their fast-growing economy caused the S&P 500 Index to tumble 16 percent (from a high of 12,239 on April 23 to a low of 11,196 on July 2)
  • Slowdowns in the pace of manufacturing expansion
  • Larger than forecasted drops in pending home sales
  • Slower than expected job growth


The "Death Cross" Fuels Pressure to Sell

Adding to stocks' weaker tone was a technical move that indicated more selling pressure may be ahead.  The S&P 500's 50-day moving average broke below its 200-day moving average – a move known as the "death cross."  According to technical analysts, a "death cross" occurs when a shorter-term average falls below a longer-term average. The phenomenon last occurred between the 50- and 200-day moving averages in December 2007. Soon after, the market began a decline that eventually saw the S&P 500 hit 12-year lows.

The December 2007 "death cross" that preceded the S&P 500's unprecedented slide to 12-year lows

Potential Rebound May Come From Earnings Growth
We believe that earnings growth will help equities rebound from their lowest valuations since the bull market began in 2009. The general belief that stocks are oversold and continued market pessimism are two factors that could inspire a short-term stock market rally driven by bargain hunting. Second-quarter earnings are expected to be good, and if they deliver, stock prices should respond favourably. On March 29, Bloomberg projected a 27 percent profit gain (based on more than 8,000 profit estimates). S&P 500 companies are expected to see profits jump by approximately 34 percent in 2010.

Compelling Value – Now Available in Canadian Stock Markets
After a significant correction from the April highs, we believe stocks now offer compelling value. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is trading at 13.5 times earnings – a substantial discount to the long-term median and average. The decline in the U.S. has pushed the S&P 500 benchmark gauge to 11.5 times estimated earnings, the cheapest since a significant rally in March 2009. 

Price-Earnings Multiples Based on 12 Month Forward Opening Earnings

More importantly, the earnings yield for equities is also very attractive. The S&P/TSX Composite Index earning yield is now 3.86 percent above long-term Government of Canada bonds, while the S&P 500 earnings yield is currently 4.79 percent above 30-year treasuries. The competing-asset effect strongly favours equities, particularly now that the equity markets have recognized that economic growth will slow.

TSX Forward Earnings Yield and Long Term Canada Bond Yields 

Global Markets Offer Attractive Valuations
Much like Canadian markets, global stocks are also showing attractive value for those seeking bargains. The MSCI All-Country World Index has lost 16 percent since mid-April. The index also carried a one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.9, a level last seen in April 2009. This is well below its 10-year average of 15.42, according to Thomson Reuters DataStream.

Slow and Steady Growth To Drive Market Gains
Potential downward earnings revisions, slow job-growth recovery and significant government deficits may still unnerve equity markets, and the "death cross" remains a concern from a technical perspective. However, valuations are becoming significantly more attractive as a result of the current short-term sell-off.

But, valuation alone will not drive stock prices higher; only global growth will. Global growth will materialize with time on the assumption that we will not experience a double-dip recession – an event that would only unfold if we were to have another collapse in the credit/financial markets.  Given the yield on corporate bonds and the current default rates, the scenario is unlikely, but the risk is still there.

In the short-term (next three months), it is hard to see a catalyst that will justify a significant move on the upside. Conversely, it is also difficult to see what may stop stock prices from moving modestly higher in the next three to six months.